"My thought of the day"
Real-Time Forecasting
How valuable is a financial plan? Most financial planners do a good job collecting data to build a financial plan for their clients. However, planners fall short when they start forecasting future results. For instance, planners typically make several assumptions about market returns, inflation, taxes, and spending habits. Of course, this is what I call hokey-pokey. The English Oxford Dictionary defines hokey-pokey as:
"(the hokey-pokey) US A group dance performed in a circle with a synchronized shaking of the limbs in turn, accompanied by a simple song".
If we think about this logically, it is virtually impossible to predict future results with so many variables. I would venture to say my college algebra professor cannot even solve this equation! Sorry, Dr. Baker. So, why do so many financial planners still use this method to build a financial plan for their clients? I am not ashamed to tell you--I do not know.
Now, continuing on the path of logical thinking, once a planner has gathered all of your financial information and established your goals for the future, the planner can easily surmise where you stand financially today versus where you want to be. The difference between your current financial status and your goals is the deficit to overcome. This method is what I call real-time forecasting. Real-time forecasting just makes better sense. Real-time forecasting is very fluid and can change based on a client's life events and it is easily monitored with periodic check-ups. Once the planner and the client agree on the deficit, an investment plan can then be put in place to eradicate the shortfall.
Financial planners need to stop playing hokey-pokey with a client's financial well-being and establish a research-based foundation to promote professionalism in their practice. It is time financial planners move away from the old agency theory practice of its origins and adopt a theory-based practice in cooperation with academicians to foster a true proficient practice based on facts, not assumptions.
As always, let me know if I can help
Gerald House
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